Any insiders who put money down on impending war may not have thought that they were giving anything away. An anonymous bet that reeks of insider trading is not always easy to spot in the moment. After the suspicious Polymarket bets on the Venezuela raid, the site’s forecast placed the odds that Maduro would be ousted at roughly 10 percent. Even if Maduro and his team had been glued to Polymarket, it’s hard to imagine that such long odds would have compelled him to flee in the middle of the night. And even with so many people betting last Friday on an imminent strike in Iran, Polymarket forecasted only a 26 percent chance, at most, of an attack the next day. What’s the signal, and what’s the noise?
A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms is streaming on HBO Max.
。新收录的资料是该领域的重要参考
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Push-Based ReactivityIn push-based reactivity, when a node updates, it notifies (and updates) all of its dependents. We can visualise this as the update being pushed down the chain of dependencies, until it reaches the final node to be updated.
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